Development of a Stochastic Mathematical Model on COVID-19 Spread

Start of work:
Project launch:

Analysis of global models on COIVD-19 spread, in order to develop own stochastic model for Almaty city 

Development of possible scenarios for quitting from coronavirus quarantine 

  • The model was developed based on existing data of Almaty city and analysis of global statistical indicators.
  • Six scenarios were calculated for 2 million people representation group.
  • According to the first scenario, if quarantine to be lifted on 13 April, number of infected should have reached 791,610, number of ‘to be hospitalized’ -  49,243 people and number of potential deaths - 23,261. 
  • Multi-stage exit scenario did not show outbreaks of virus spread.

* Representatives of Almaty Department of Digitalization and The First Credit